tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16479211130352437032024-02-22T18:23:15.171+00:00France seen from the CityLa vue d'un gerant de fonds de la City sur son pays, la Francejhdelamazehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00265734770594122301noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1647921113035243703.post-83760034065166280622014-05-30T12:09:00.004+01:002014-05-30T14:26:22.304+01:00THE THATCHER RECIPE<div class="MsoNormal">
(Article published in Spanish in Actualidad Economica magazine, June 2014
supplement: "El Espectador Incorrecto - Una mirada liberal al mundo")<br />
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While Continental Europe is still struggling to recover from
the deepest economic crisis since World War II, UK business confidence is
reaching historic highs. With an expected GDP growth of 2.7% for 2014 and unemployment
trending down towards 7% well earlier than planned by the Bank of England
itself, the UK’s economic health is striking. The streets of London are
buoyant, with retail sales booming. And importantly such confidence in the
future is not limited to London but can also be felt across the country, as
confirmed by a recent national survey (Grant Thornton’s UK Business Confidence
Monitor – Q1 2014). The roots of such economic success go back to the Margaret
Thatcher years.</div>
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It seems normal to anyone living in Britain today to shop in
supermarkets at any time of day or night, to get cash at the bank’s counter or
the post office on Saturdays, to switch electricity supplier in a few clicks
after being alerted by the incumbent supplier itself that there is a cheaper
offer with some competitors, to travel to anywhere in Europe for a fraction of
a typical flight ticket, even to start a new business in a day. What a contrast
with the UK of the 1970s and early 1980s, which Bank of England was qualifying
as “the sick man of Europe”! Britain was paralysed by constant strikes, streets
were empty after 6pm with most shops closed by then, Europe was making fun of
lazy and lousy Britain. The country’s decline seemed unstoppable and both
politicians and the British people seemed resigned to it.</div>
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Free markets, flexibility in employment laws, tight control
of government spending, tax cuts for business and individuals, even for top
earners... Such pillars of Ms Thatcher’s economic programme are hardly
contested today by either Conservative or Labour leaders, who over the years
have, one after the other, admitted being “Thatcherites”. Margaret Thatcher
reportedly considered that her biggest victory was to have brought the Labour
Party to end-up backing her economic policies. Ms Thatcher’s reforms now appear
so obvious and natural that it seems that nobody can contest them anymore. </div>
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Nevertheless, the intense debate re-ignited at the time of
her funeral last year shows that her legacy remains hugely controversial. As if
British people were shameful of what they have become: successful and
wealthier, but greedy and selfish?</div>
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While the Iron Lady obviously did not do everything right
and too often seemed hermetic to people’s complaints, one has to admit that she
has transformed her country to an extent that no other European nation has
lived over the past 40 years. </div>
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Ms Thatcher’s eleven years in power were particularly
ground-breaking in three major economic aspects:</div>
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First of all, government spending was cut dramatically and
budget deficits were kept under control for the first time since the War, even
turning to a surplus in the late 1980s. Ms Thatcher considered a national
humiliation that her country had to request a loan from the IMF in 1976. She
decided that the fight against public spending should be the country’s top
priority. The only areas intentionally preserved from cuts were police, defence
and the National Health Service. After reaching 44.6% of GDP just as Ms
Thatcher came to power in 1979, public spending was cut back to 39.2% by the
end of her three terms in 1990. This despite having to face two recessions in
the meantime. Even more significantly, the control of budget deficits became
the new norm so that State spending continued to drop in the 1990s, even under
Tony Blair’s New Labour governments, in a clear contrast with most major
industrialised economies. At the end of the 1990s, Britain had reduced public
spending almost to the level of the US, well below any other large European
country. Interestingly, Ms Thatcher managed to reverse the trend of Budget
deficits while at the same time drastically cutting taxes. She was convinced
that the country was being paralysed by the heavy weight of taxation, which was
not only preventing corporates from investing but also was creating an assisted
mentality and was killing any entrepreneurial spirit. Taxes had reached levels
of up to 83% of income. She capped the marginal tax rate at 60% to start with,
then 40%, and cut the common tax rate from 33% to 30%, while raising VAT. And
she would refute accusations of favouring the rich, convinced as she was that
you need to incentivise those who are ready to take risks, invest and create
jobs. The reduction in Budget deficits was financed not only by spending cuts
but also by a £50bn privatisation programme. Emblematic companies like Jaguar,
British Telecom, BP, British Gas, British Airways, British Aerospace were either
sold or privatised. But here again the National Health Service was kept under
State ownership and control. </div>
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Another key aspect of Ms Thatcher’s era is how the stringent
reforms underpinned individual wealth, against all odds. Since 1980, GDP per
capita has increased more in the UK than in the US, Japan, Germany or France. While
the UK’s GDP per capita had been lagging all major industrialised nations in
the three previous decades, the situation started to reverse during Ms
Thatcher’s terms and Britain took the lead in the 1990s and 2000s. Such
statistics are the best answers to those who blame her for having increased the
gap between the rich and the poor, as the whole population in fact got
significantly wealthier. A good illustration of this is how the most modest
segments of the British population gained access to the property market.
Through her famous “Right to Buy” scheme, Margaret Thatcher led the State to
sell 1.5 million council homes at large discounts so that the poorest could
acquire the properties they were living in.
The scheme was clever as it helped restore public finances, generating £18bn
over the period. And it made Ms Thatcher hugely popular among popular classes!</div>
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But if there was one achievement to keep in mind from
Margaret Thatcher’s eleven years in power, it is how she has converted Britain
to free markets. Her economic principle was to limit the State’s functions to
the protection of individuals while the markets would take care of the rest,
under the control of strong independent regulators. She profoundly believed in
people’s sense of responsibility and therefore in private enterprise. She
abolished currency exchange controls and cut State subsidies to industries. She
deregulated finance, but also most utilities services, including telecoms,
power and gas supply. While largely criticised in its initial stage, notably
due to an initial boost in unemployment numbers, the process quickly proved to
be a significant incentive to innovation and competition. In her view, economic
freedom would lead to growth and job creation, which is pretty much what
happened. UK regulators have not been questioned since then and are well
respected today for their role to limit free market excesses. They are not only
independent from the central government but also careful of interests of both
private operators and final users. The British society gradually gave up its
assisted mindset to adapt itself to the notion of sound emulation through
competition. This has been the source of major progress and growth in the UK
economy and still today represents one of the country’s key strengths relative
to its peers internationally. </div>
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So Margaret Thatcher inherited from a stagnant economy, a
huge, costly and inefficient public sector, a population discouraged by
confiscatory tax levels and structural unemployment. Not so dissimilar to
Europe today is it…? Now we know the
recipe to success. But we are running late so let’s not wait, Margaret
Thatcher’s era was 25 years ago!</div>
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Jean-Hugues de Lamaze</div>
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Economist and Fund Manager in London</div>
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jhdelamazehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00265734770594122301noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1647921113035243703.post-34229443391659190612014-05-10T17:29:00.001+01:002014-05-30T12:19:01.857+01:00LA REPRESENTATION DES FRANCAIS DE L'ETRANGER A CERTES UN COUT, MAIS IL EST JUSTIFIE<table cellpadding="0" class="ajC"><tbody>
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Ma reponse a un ami qui questionnait le financement de la representation des Francais de l'etranger::</div>
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Mon tres cher JB, merci de tes encouragements et de tes
questions parfaitement legitimes. Comme je te connais bien, je n’y percois aucune
malice .Peut-etre juste un soupcon de cet a priori bien ancre selon lequel les
Francais de l’etranger seraient en qq sorte de “mauvais Francais” car
privilegies et ne contribuant pas a l’effort national… Ce n’est pas a toi que
je vais rappeler que la representation des Francais de l’etranger ne date pas d’hier.
Napoleon leur avait donne une existence juridique, et les guerres du XXe siecle
ont assis leur legitimite jusqu’a leur donner une assemblee des 1948. Que le Parlement
elu en 2012 ait souhaite reformer le mode d'election de cette assemblee (en en alourdissant
le cout), on peut en debattre. Mais ce systeme a fait ses preuves depuis bien
longtemps et le nombre croissant de Francais vivant en dehors des frontieres hexagonales
en justifie l’existence. Par ailleurs, tu sais
bien que pour nous Francais l’appartenance a la Nation et l’ouverture de droits
n’a rien a voir avec la contribution fiscale. Outre le fait que les Francais de
l’etranger sont bien assujettis aux impots francais (ISF, taxes foncieres,
taxes d’habitation, plus-values, TVA…) et meme dans de nombreux cas aux
cotisations sociales (CSG-CRDS), bien qu’ils ne puissent beneficier de la
protection sociale francaise. Ces Francais contribuent non seulement aux
finances du pays par leurs attaches patrimoniales et activites en France, mais
ils sont aussi des acteurs du rayonnement de notre pays a travers le monde.
Sans doute est-ce negligeable aux yeux de certains par les temps difficiles que
nous traversons. Mais on aurait tord de considerer ces compatriotes comme des privilegies.
Les Francais de l’etranger ne travaillent pas tous dans la City. Ils sont
divers par leurs origines, leurs parcours, leurs experiences. Et cette
diversite est une source de richesse. Nous pouvons beaucoup apprendre de nos
voisins, par exemple en matiere de simplification et pacification de nos rapports
avec les administrations, de promotion de nos entrepreneurs createurs d’emplois,
de prise en charge des handicapes etc. Nous aurions tord de l’oublier et de
negliger ces Francais qui un jour reviendront au pays forts de leur experience
du monde et de leur energie positive dont notre pays a tant besoin. A tres vite
pour en reparler. Bises! JH</div>
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jhdelamazehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00265734770594122301noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1647921113035243703.post-26477016637493359732014-02-13T10:44:00.001+00:002014-05-30T14:26:33.113+01:00Déjà 10 milliards de trouvés sur les 50…<!--[if !mso]>
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<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">(article publie dans La Tribune - 14 fev 2014) </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<h1 style="font-weight: 400; margin: 10px 0px 20px;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="background-color: rgba(255,255,255,0);"><span style="font-size: large;">Le gaz de schiste, pour réduire de 10 milliards la facture énergétique </span></span></span></h1>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">L’obstination de
la France à s’opposer au gaz de schiste relève tant de l’archaïsme que du
paradoxe. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">Archaïsme car la
France ne se contente pas de dénoncer les risques écologiques – sans doute réels
- de la technique de fracturation hydraulique (“fracking”), mais elle interdit
aussi toute recherche de nouvelle technologie qui permettrait de contourner le problème.
La loi de juillet 2011, confirmée par le Conseil Constitutionnel en octobre
2013, interdit en effet la fracturation hydraulique en France et abroge tout
brevet de recherche sur la question au nom du principe de précaution. Opinion réitérée
dans un rapport parlementaire de novembre 2013. Il s’agit bien là d’une position
dogmatique, sans doute pour satisfaire le puissant courant écologiste. Mais à
l’heure de la mondialisation, n’est-il pas inquiétant de voir la France
s’arc-bouter et fermer la porte au progrès? Notre recherche de pointe suscite
pourtant notre fierté. Certes la décision du Général de Gaulle de lancer notre
pays dans l’aventure du nucléaire était audacieuse, mais elle s’est révélée
visionnaire et cette ambition aura largement contribué à dynamiser la recherche
technologique française de ces 50 dernières années. Nous avons besoin
aujourd’hui de ce courage politique et il est surprenant qu’au sein de la
classe politique, seul Monsieur Montebourg semble reprendre le flambeau sur ce
dossier du gaz non-conventionnel. Ce malgré les recommandations dans ce sens du
rapport Gallois de novembre 2012 sur la compétitivité française ainsi que de
l’Académie des Sciences dans son avis de novembre 2013.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">Archaïsme certes,
mais paradoxe aussi car nos politiques se sont engagés par ailleurs à <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>réduire la part du nucléaire dans la production
énergétique française. Or ils savent parfaitement que les énergies
renouvelables ne sont pas en mesure de fournir une énergie fiable et régulière.
La nécessité d’assurer nos besoins énergétiques par des sources d’énergie thermique
reste évidente. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Il faut donc s’en donner
les moyens, tandis que nous importons 98% de notre gaz. Or les Américains nous
ont démontré que cela pouvait se faire à un cout significativement réduit grâce
au gaz de schiste. Notre sous-sol a de surcroit la chance d’en regorger, selon
les premières études qui en ont été faites. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">Et à l’heure où
la France cherche désespérément des sources d’économies structurelles pour
financer son pacte de responsabilité avec les entreprises, une réduction de la
facture énergétique serait la bienvenue. Chez nos amis américains, non
seulement <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>la filière de gaz de schiste a
permis de créer 2,1 millions d’emplois en à peine 5 ans, mais la baisse de 50%
du prix du gaz qu’elle a engendré a déjà généré près de 300 milliards de
dollars de PIB et enrichi les ménages américains de 1200$ par an (source CERA).
On estime que le développement d’une telle filière allègerait le cout de nos
approvisionnements énergétiques d’au moins 10 milliards par an (sur une facture
totale de 69 milliards) et réduirait notre dépendance vis-à-vis de l’extérieur.
Les Anglais l’ont bien compris et se lancent dans l’aventure. Ne restons pas
immobiles. La France mérite de redevenir audacieuse.</span></div>
jhdelamazehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00265734770594122301noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1647921113035243703.post-74652760291187821702013-10-15T12:17:00.001+01:002014-05-30T14:27:35.375+01:00Economie francaise: les reformes, c'est maintenant!<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]--><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">(Contribution </span><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;"><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">à</span> l'ouvrage </span><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;"><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;"><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">é</span></span>conomique </span><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;"><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">de Daniel Lacalle "Viaje a La Libertad Economica", </span></span><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;"><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;"><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;"><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">é</span></span>ditions Deusto, novembre 2013)</span></span><br />
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">La France fait
partie de l’élite des nations les plus riches au monde. Pourtant depuis 30 ans
notre pays ne cesse de perdre des places dans les classements internationaux,
avec une tendance à l’accélération depuis une dizaine d’années. On ne peut se
contenter de nier la fiabilité de tels indicateurs dont nous ne contrôlons pas
les critères. Il faut bien l’admettre, notre pays perd du terrain. Les Français
s’en rendent compte, eux qui sont devenus un des peuples les plus pessimistes
au monde, avec un taux de confiance des ménages à son plus bas historique au
premier semestre de cette année. Pourtant, bien que consciente de ses
difficultés, la France semble paralysée. Il est vrai que nous avons bâti un des
états-providence les plus protecteurs au monde qui nous donne une certaine
illusion de sécurité et que nous craignons de perdre. Il est sans doute aussi
plus facile pour nos politiciens de blâmer l’Euro et la mondialisation plutôt
que d’avouer la nécessité de réformes profondes. Mais nous le voyons tous, la France
souffre, avec sa croissance molle et un taux de chômage qui semble
incompressible. Il devient urgent d’agir.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">La lutte contre
l’endettement devrait être notre première priorité.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Notre pays n’a plus enregistré de Budget
excédentaire depuis … 1974. Cette dette publique accumulée sur les 40 dernières
années atteindra un nouveau plus haut cette année avec 1.870 milliards d’euros,
soit plus de 90% du PIB. Pourtant il y a encore à peine 5 ans le pays
s’efforçait de respecter les 60% d’endettement maximal fixés dans le marbre du
Traité de Maastricht. Et de façon inquiétante les perspectives d’inversion de
la tendance sont faibles. Ainsi le déficit additionnel de la France pour
l’année 2013 sera de l’ordre de 4% du PIB alors que les comptes de l’Allemagne
seront à l’équilibre. Notons que les deux pays avaient des niveaux de déficits
et de dettes publics équivalents il y a 10 ans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">Il est vrai que
les taux d’intérêt sont aux plus bas historiques et qu’il est donc tentant
d’avoir recours à une dette si peu onéreuse. Mais l’exemple du Japon devrait
nous convaincre de l’inefficacité d’une telle solution pour stimuler la
croissance. Bien que le pays ait accumulé plus de 240% de dette, un taux
quasiment insurmontable pour les générations futures, sa croissance reste
anémique et sa production industrielle ne cesse de décliner. Seule la
dévaluation de sa monnaie permet aujourd’hui au Japon de préserver son économie.
Comme nous le savons il s’agit-là d’un outil non disponible pour les pays de la
zone Euro.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">La difficulté à
laquelle nous avons à faire face en France pour réduire nos déficits tient principalement
au poids de notre Administration. Nos 5,5 millions de fonctionnaires, 1,4
million de plus qu’en 1980, représentent 22% de la population active. Une telle
proportion de 90 employés de l’Etat pour 1000 habitants est proche du double de
celle de l’Allemagne. Encore faudrait-il rajouter en France les 2 millions
d’employés des secteurs des services postaux, de l’éducation ou des transports
qui ne bénéficient pas du statut de fonctionnaires mais sont rémunérés par
l’Etat. Au total près d’un employé sur quatre travaille en France pour l’Etat.
Et avec un poids de 57% du PIB, les dépenses publiques de la France détiennent
le record de la zone Euro. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">Notre classe
politique est bien évidemment réticente à s’attaquer à cet obstacle. Le poids
des syndicats y est pour quelque chose. Mais plus généralement les Français
sont attachés à leurs services publics et fiers de leurs écoles, hôpitaux ou
infrastructures de transport. Nicolas Sarkozy s’est rendu impopulaire en
suggérant la réduction du nombre de fonctionnaires. Tandis que l’étonnante
promesse du candidat Francois Hollande d’embaucher 60.000 enseignants
supplémentaires aura probablement contribué à son élection en 2012. N’est-il
pas révélateur que selon un sondage Ipsos, 73% des jeunes français aimeraient
travailler dans la fonction publique!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">Devant cette
impossibilité de diminuer le poids de cette Administration tentaculaire, les
gouvernements successifs ont préféré avoir recours à l’impôt. Mais avec une
charge fiscale équivalent à 45% du PIB, la France se situe déjà en tête des
pays de l’OCDE (dont la moyenne est de 35%). Cette recette est donc
pratiquement épuisée. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">Il faut désormais
se consacrer à l’amélioration de la compétitivité de notre économie. Celle-ci
ne cesse de se détériorer depuis 10 ans.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Les Français, à peine contredits par leurs politiciens, y ont vu l’effet
de la mise en place de l’Euro. Mais des pays comme l’Allemagne, les pays du
nord de l’Europe ou même l’Espagne, s’en sortent mieux que nous en matière de
compétitivité, pourtant avec cette même monnaie. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">La balance
commerciale de la France affiche un des déficits les plus élevés de la zone
Euro (67 milliards en 2012) alors que l’Allemagne devrait publier cette année
un surplus de plus de 200 milliards d’Euros. Pourtant les deux pays étaient
dans une situation comparable au milieu des années 1990 et la France affichait
encore un surplus confortable il y a 10 ans. Mais les exportations françaises
ne représentent plus que 3% du commerce mondial contre 6% dans les années 1990.
Tandis que l’Allemagne a multiplié par 10 en 10 ans ses exportations vers la
Chine pour atteindre 80 milliards de dollars, la France se contentera de 20
milliards cette année. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">L’investissement
fait cruellement défaut dans notre pays et il faut l’encourager. La capacité
industrielle de la France est la même qu’il y a 20 ans alors que celle de
l’Allemagne a progressé de 40%. De surcroit, la France souffre de co</span><span lang="EN-US">û</span><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">ts du travail nettement
supérieurs à ses concurrents, comme l’a souligné le rapport Gallois. Les
entreprises françaises doivent supporter un poids de l’impôt de l’ordre de 65%
de leurs profits, essentiellement à travers des charges sociales. Ce poids est
de 47% en Allemagne et de 45% pour la moyenne européenne. Les co</span><span lang="EN-US">û</span><span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">ts salariaux ont
augmenté de 10% en France depuis 10 ans, ce qui compte tenu d’une baisse de 5%
des prix industriels représente 15% de perte de productivité sur la période.
C’est un handicap majeur dans le cadre d’une compétition internationale. Nous
devons oser la modération des salaires ainsi que la baisse des charges pour nos
entreprises. Le Royaume-Uni en a fait un axe principal de sa politique et déjà
le pays montre des signes de reprise plus forte qu’en France.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="FR" style="mso-ansi-language: FR;">Dix ans de
décrochage par rapport à nos concurrents, c’est suffisamment peu pour que ce
retard soit rattrapable. Mais encore faut-il le vouloir. Or aujourd’hui en
France toute velléité d’aider l’entreprise reste un tabou. Les syndicats se
battent pour préserver les emplois et les salaires. Mais trop peu sont ouverts aux
améliorations structurelles de la compétitivité en concertation avec les
dirigeants, comme on a pu le voir en Allemagne. Même l’opinion publique
française a une image peu positive du monde de l’entreprise et de ses patrons.
Ainsi nos gouvernements préfèrent juguler la marge de manœuvre des chefs
d’entreprise plutôt que de les inciter à investir et prendre des risques.
Comment pendant la<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>campagne électorale
de 2012 des responsables politiques peuvent-ils encore suggérer d’interdire les
licenciements de la part de sociétés qui réalisent des profits ? Cela fait
preuve au mieux de beaucoup de mauvaise foi, au pire d’une méconnaissance
totale du monde dans lequel nous vivons. La France reste un pays riche mais
elle doit aujourd’hui faire face à une concurrence mondiale qui ne l’attend
pas. Des pays comme l’Espagne, au bord de la faillite il y a peu, gagnent des
parts de marche sur la scène mondiale à travers gains de productivité et
développement des exportations. La France ne peut plus se permettre d’être
autiste et immobile. Selon l’adage populaire, il faut toucher le fond pour
mieux rebondir. Anticipons-le. Il est temps ! </span><br />
</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1647921113035243703.post-13833519433718311832013-09-02T12:34:00.001+01:002014-05-30T14:29:03.472+01:00Reforms can allow the French economy to catch up, but please don't wait further!<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]-->(Contribution to Daniel Lacalle's book "Viaje a La Libertad Economica", Deusto, November 2013)<br />
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While France still ranks amongst the richest nations in
the world, the country has been losing ground in international rankings over
the past 30 years and the downward spiral seems to have accelerated over the
past decade. Initially reluctant to admit it, the French seem increasingly
conscious of the negative trend for their country. They now even stand amongst
the most pessimistic of the industrialised world, with consumer confidence
reaching record lows in the first half of 2013. But while this could be seen as
an opportunity to undertake structural reforms, few politicians so far have
found the courage to face a reluctant public opinion. True that France has
built one of the most protective welfare states in the world and the French see
any reform as a risk of losing parts of that relative comfort. It seems easier
to blame globalisation and the Euro for the country’s decline. So the paradox
is here: while both French politicians and the general public are convinced of the
need for reform, the country seems static, with anaemic growth and a persistent
high unemployment, but no drastic political decision to address the issues.<br />
<br />
Fundamentally, the French economy suffers from two critical issues: a heavy
debt load and a growing competitiveness gap.<br />
<br />
The first issue is common to most European countries and is related to the
structural deficits that France has been accumulating since the mid-1970s.
France’s last balanced Budget was 1980’s and the State’s Budget has not generated
a proper surplus since 1974. The public debt load accumulated over the past
forty years is reaching this year a historic high of €1,870bn, or close to 100%
of GDP. The figure compares with the 60% upper limit fixed in the Maastricht
Treaty and considered a critical threshold among EU member countries until the
mid-2000s. Even more worryingly, the prospect of a reduction in the annual
Budget deficits is slim. In 2013, France will generate an incremental State
deficit of 4% of GDP while Germany will have balanced accounts. It is
interesting to note that Germany and France had similar deficit and public debt
levels a decade ago. So it seems clear that France has given up the fight for
financial sanity over the past ten years.<br />
<br />
With interest rates at historic lows, the general sentiment – largely shared by
French politicians - is that debt is cheaper than ever and therefore should not
be a concern. The fight against deficits is often seen as detrimental to
economic growth. Furthermore, deficits are used to finance artificial ways to
support the economy. This takes the form of all kinds of subsidies or tax
exemptions. The example of Japan should be enough to convince leaders of the
lack of efficiency of such policy. Despite the accumulation of debt up to a record
level of 240% of GDP, Japan has been unable to underpin its static growth and
is suffering from a structural decline in industrial production. Japan’s only
remaining economic tool seems to be currency devaluation, which is not an
available option for members of the Eurozone. Meanwhile the debt burden is
accumulating and will have to be addressed by future generations.<br />
<br />
In France specifically, the inability to reduce Budget deficits illustrates an
additional blocking factor: the difficulty to reduce the size and cost base of
a gigantic Administration. According to official statistics, 5.5 million people
work directly for the State, local authorities or public hospitals. This is 1.4
million more people than in 1980 and today represents 22% of the French workforce.
These people benefit from the highly advantageous status of so-called
“fonctionnaires” (civil servants), which gives them access notably to job
stability and a privileged retirement scheme, financed by the State. It
is worth noting that France has a proportion of c.90 civil servants for 1000
inhabitants, which is almost twice as much as Germany. To these 5.5 million
people, one can add an estimated 2 million employees (in transport, postal
services, education) paid by the State without benefitting from the official
civil servant status. So overall approximately one out of four French workers
is employed by the State. These employees account for about half (48%) of the
State’s annual Budget, or 15.5% of GDP. And overall public spending accounts
for 57% of French GDP, the highest share in the Euro zone.<br />
<br />
Successive governments have been very hesitant to address this massive cost
burden. First of all because the French are deeply attached to the civil
services that they are getting from the State. The French are proud of their
high-speed trains, of their public hospitals and schools. Each closure of a
local post office or judicial court triggers a press campaign in local and
national newspapers. Mr Sarkozy’s plans to reduce the number of civil servants
have made him unpopular. Conversely Mr Hollande seduced the public by his
shocking promise during the 2012 Presidential election campaign to hire 60,000
additional teachers over 5 years (a measure approved by 86% of the young
voters). It is revealing to note that, according to a 2012 survey by the
Ipsos Institute, 73% of the young French would like to work for the French
Administration!<br />
<br />
The second reason for the difficulty for political leaders to address the issue
of an over-sized Administration is that civil servants are a significant part
of the electorate and have been particularly vocal in defending their
specificity (should we say privileges…?) through trade unions. While trade
unions represent hardly 10% of the total workforce in France - another
structural difference with Germany – they can account for up 30-40% of the
employees in state-owned companies like energy operator EDF or the public train
operator SNCF.<br />
<br />
Hardly any structural reform of the French debt issue can be undertaken without
the implicit approval of the trade unions. Forgetting this could lead to long
strikes likely to block the country as it did a few times over the past twenty
years.<br />
<br />
This explains why so far the main tool used by governments has been tax
increases. But with a tax burden reaching 45% of GDP in 2012, France stands at
the top end of OECD countries. The rate compares with OECD average of 35%. Such
tax pressure cannot afford to increase much further (and it will in 2013), at
the risk of deeply affecting economic activity. With the fiscal recipe largely
utilised, France will not be able to avoid for much longer addressing the cost
base of its public Administration.<br />
<br />
<br />
Besides the issue of a heavy debt load, France suffers from a more specific and
as concerning issue: the clear loss of competitiveness of its corporate sector
over the past decade. As this corresponded to the implementation of the Common
currency, it proved easy and convenient for politicians to blame Europe. But
Germany has managed to much improve its competitiveness over that same period,
using the same currency. Same for Scandinavia and even to some extent for
Spain.<br />
<br />
France’s trade balance has been deteriorating to a worrying extent. From a
small surplus in 2003, France will have this year one of the largest trade
deficits of the Eurozone (€67bn in 2012). The comparison with Germany is cruel:
both countries had comparable surpluses in the mid-1990s while Germany will
report more than €200bn surplus in 2013.<br />
<br />
France’s trade deficit remains somewhat contained by the fact that its slow
economic growth has been limiting imports over the past few years. But the
figures hardly hide the fact that the country’s exports are stagnant while they
used to be a source of strength for the French economy up until a decade ago.
French products no longer sell abroad and this must be seen as a serious
concern for the future of the country’s industrial production. French
exports account for 3% of world exports versus 6% in the mid-1990s (source:
IMF). Italy and to some extent the UK have been following comparable paths.
Over the same period, German exports have only declined from 10% to 8%, and
today account for a similar weight in international trade as the US. Meanwhile,
Spanish exports have kept a stable share of 2%. It is revealing that German
exports to China have increased tenfold from $8bn in 2000 to $80bn in 2013,
while France has only moved c.$5bn to $20bn. So what is happening to France?
Probably two sorts of issues: investments are insufficient and labour costs are
too high.<br />
<br />
France’s production capacity has hardly increased over the past twenty years.
While the situation is similar in Spain and even worse in Italy or the UK,
Germany has been investing so that its manufacturing capacity is now 40% higher
than it was in the mid-1990s. Germany managed to implement such capital
expenditure without affecting either internal consumption or savings. It
represents today a major asset for the country. In comparison, France looks to
have changed category and no longer being in the race for industrial
production.<br />
<br />
The second kind of issues can explain France’s lack of industrial investments:
production and labour costs are clearly too high. Employers have been
complaining about this factor for many years but successive governments have
been shy to implement changes. The reform of French corporate charges has also
recently been recommended by Mr Louis Gallois, previous CEO of transport
operator SNCF and of French-German defence group EADS, in a report on the
French economy commissioned by President Hollande. French companies have to
bear 65.7% of taxes on their profits, mostly through social charges, versus
46.7% in Germany and an average of 44.7% across Europe. Statistics also
show that French unit labour costs are above 110 compared to a 100 base in 2003
(source: INSEE, Natixis). Over the same period, industrial prices have fallen
by about 5%. This has created a productivity gap of more than 15% which is hard
to fill.<br />
<br />
While politicians are clearly aware of the need to support corporate
investments to underpin growth and employment, it remains a sensitive topic in
France to favour the enterprise. Trade unions have traditionally been arguing
for higher wages and job security rather than fiscal incentives to companies.
This has created a degree of rigidity in the French labour market which is
close to paralysing and which no government is particularly eager to address.
Companies hardly find any incentive to invest or hire in France. Several of the
current socialist representatives were even suggesting during the 2012 campaign
that French corporates should be forbidden to lay off people as long as they
are making profits. So mentalities need to evolve in times where France can no
longer live on its own wealth and has to face global competition.<br />
<br />
France remains a rich country which is largely living on its past successes,
giving an impression of eternality. The French are conscious of the fundamental
issues of their economy but hardly trust any politician to undertake the
changes. So the real risk that France is facing today is immobility. While
Spain is fighting to reconquer lost wealth and international market shares,
France gives a worrying impression of passivity. And one ends up waiting for
the situation to deteriorate further so that there will be no other alternative
than to reform.</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
JHL<br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1647921113035243703.post-89358840471122797572013-07-17T12:24:00.001+01:002013-09-24T14:58:51.922+01:00La France et l'Algerie, l'Algerie et la FranceDecembre 2012, a quelques jours de Noel, dans un taxi parisien entre la
Gare du Nord et le quartier des Champs Elysees. La radio en toile de
fond. Francois Hollande est en Algerie aujourd'hui et vient de prononcer
un discours tres attendu devant le Parlement. Le chauffeur monte le son
pour en ecouter le compte-rendu. Par le truchement du retroviseur, je
percois dans son regard ce melange de bonte et de haine triste si
caracteristique des Algeriens. Un sentiment de melancolie que l'on ne
retrouve ni chez les Marocains, ni chez les Tunisiens. L'Algerie est
unique. Qu'y a t'il dans l'histoire de ce beau pays qui puisse expliquer
un tel sentiment de desespoir qui transparait dans les yeux de sa
population? Quel traumatisme pour que l'on ressente encore les plaies de
la guerre 50 ans apres l'independance?<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Je decide
d'engager la conversation. "Vous etes originaire d'Algerie non?". La
reponse me paraissait si evidente que je l'entends a peine. "Que
pensez-vous de tout ca?" </div>
<div>
- " Monsieur, tant que la France
elle ne se sera pas excusee pour tout ce qu'elle nous a fait subir,
l'Algerie ne pourra pas fonctionner. Regardez dans quel etat il est
notre pays aujourd'hui! Tout ca c'est a cause de la France. Il n'y a pas
une famille qui a ete epargnee. Dans nos villages, un jour ils se
faisaient menacer par le FLN si ils collaboraient avec les Francais, le
lendemain l'Armee francaise debarquait et faisait une expedition
punitive parce que les habitants avaient accueilli les fellagas. Les
militaires dans ces cas la ils violaient meme nos femmes."</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
J'essaie
de trouver des arguments. J'explique que les exactions de quelques uns
ne peuvent pas etre consideres comme representatifs de toute l'Armee
francaise. Qu'on ne peut pas condamner 130 ans de colonisation sous le
pretexte que la guerre d'independance a ete terrible. Toutes ces
infrastructures, ces hopitaux, ces ecoles, c'est tout de meme bien a la
France que l'Algerie le doit. Mon chauffeur ecoute, mais rien n'y fait.
La colonisation n'etait faite que dans l'interet de la France, qui a
ensuite laisse le pays dans le chaos.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Je
mentionne alors mon pere qui a commande un regiment en Algerie en plein
processus d'independance. Sous ses ordres, pas question de torture ou de
mauvais traitement de la population civile. Combien il a tant aime ce
pays, ses habitants. Combien aussi il a pris des risques pour sauver et
evacuer des harkis, aux depens evidents de sa propre carriere au sein de
la hierarchie militaire. Le chauffeur me regarde et d'un geste arrete
le compteur. Nous sommes a mi-parcours seulement et je me demande
l'espace d'un instant s'il va me demander de descendre. "Le reste de la
course c'est pour moi Monsieur".</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Telles sont les relations entre nos deux pays. De la haine, mais tant de sentiments fraternels partages.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
La France et l'Algerie. L'Algerie et la France.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1647921113035243703.post-73590280574354291252013-04-23T17:54:00.001+01:002013-04-24T11:09:28.403+01:00La France sur une pente japonaise...!<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="color: blue;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2xhK_4GwwYueFR-Ya4M_w0WdXn1JRIs4MmV3QhJyxPRX_zemTHAryWI2tCafYPkUgkTmLQXqv1XKnuH_60x8nH8DoK73N-psf2dljTSYX2Yq5r0NOxsuGe-lg_QRb8oF05FgCqAtWGEyK/s1600/p-chart.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;">Dette particuliers/PIB</a></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi52uS_yoYw5x5efbLwVJBBhBbWkPwErMTWcWnDwQ5ywV3YjoaiPtKUTDl4FDx_8kj9-3OermOzxSTAIn7gvkJan-U2eEYYhtTYTfW5OkmOQr8chxYqMIzwR3fbiypfiFBJM5gjwXBpLTr9/s1600/p-chart3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi52uS_yoYw5x5efbLwVJBBhBbWkPwErMTWcWnDwQ5ywV3YjoaiPtKUTDl4FDx_8kj9-3OermOzxSTAIn7gvkJan-U2eEYYhtTYTfW5OkmOQr8chxYqMIzwR3fbiypfiFBJM5gjwXBpLTr9/s320/p-chart3.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="mso-fareast-language: EN-GB;">L'economie francaise est vacillante, nous le savons tous. Les Francais souffrent de cette croissance faible et d'un chomage persistant, qui le nierait. Les reformes necessaires tardent a etre mises en oeuvre, admettons-le. Et pourtant, la France beneficie aujourd'hui d'un degre de confiance sans precedent de la part des marches du credit. Ainsi notre pays n'a jamais dans son histoire recente pu emprunter a des taux aussi attractifs. Le phenomene depasse les frontieres francaises et concerne l'ensemble des economies considerees comme stables. Aux Etats-Unis, il faut remonter a 1945 pour trouver des taux aussi bas. Il est donc tentant dans ces conditions de laisser flamber les niveaux d'endettement du monde industrialise, dans l'espoir que cela aidera la croissance a redemarrer. Il y a a peine 5 ans, l'Europe s'efforcait de respecter les criteres inscrits dans le marbre du Traite de Maastricht, a savoir notamment un endettement public limite a 60% du PIB. Mais voila que nos gouvernants se satisfont desormais allegrement d'une dette de l'ordre de 90%. Pourquoi s'en priver puisque cela est si bon marche? Et pourquoi s'encombrer des analyses empiriques qui montrent qu'au-dela de ce seuil l'endettement finit par freiner la croissance, puisque ces calculs sont probablement errones? Le debat recent sur les erreurs que comportait l'etude des deux chercheurs americains de Harvard, Kenneth Rogoff et Carmen Reinhart, sur "Huit Siecles de Folie financiere" est a ce titre revelateur. Apres tout, les graphiques d'Al Gore sur le rechauffement climatique etaient eux-memes truffes d'inexactitudes. La preuve? Nous venons d'avoir un hiver froid... La France suit donc la tendance du moment et emprunte a tout va. Les generations futures n'auront qu'a se debrouiller pour rembourser. Il semble donc que nous suivions le modele du Japon, pays industrialise le plus endette de la planete, ce qui n'empeche pas son economie d'etre anemique et de voir sa production industrielle s'effondrer de trimestre en trimestre. Reste pour le Japon l'arme de la devaluation monetaire, un outil que la zone Euro s'est interdit d'utiliser...<br />
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